Beginner logic: Joe is successful. Joe just discovered Substack and loves it. Joe made a course about it. Therefore Substack must be the move.
The gap nobody names: Joe’s success is evidence Joe is good at something. It’s not evidence Joe correctly diagnosed why that something worked, and it’s definitely not evidence it transfers to someone with a different audience, offer, and working style.
Enthusiasm reads as expertise when you don’t yet know what real fit-analysis looks like. There’s a real difference between “I tested this against alternatives and here’s specifically where it wins” and “I just found this and I’m excited.” A beginner usually can’t tell those two apart. The accomplished-guy halo does the convincing instead of the actual argument.
Worth remembering next time a platform recommendation shows up wrapped in someone’s credibility instead of their reasoning. Ask what they compared it against, not just whether they seem like they know what they’re doing.